In-depth analysis of Thunder s maximum salary renewal: The third young man in Oscar changed his offering, Durant is just a rocket crossing the river?

Two different paths to compete for the championship, one with the same salary dilemma. Under the new version of the labor-management agreement, the two teams, the Thunder and the Rockets, have become classic examples of salary management operations.

Thunder renewed his contract with Javi for $287 million, completing the complete binding of the core of the new Thunder Third Young Master, shocking the entire league. After renewing Alexander for 285 million yuan in four years and Chet for 250 million yuan in five years, the Thunder did not blink at all when facing the sky-high contract of three people with a total of US$822 million. On the one hand, they were preparing to build a dynasty during the peak period of locking in the core, and on the other hand, the Thunder seemed to be ready for the team's salary pressure in the next team. The salary structure of the team has never had such a profound impact on the opening and closing of the championship window. Only the two emerging teams in the Western Conference, the Thunder and the Rockets, have built the team lineup with completely different team building logics. The former uses three super top salaries to lock in the core, while the latter uses short-term superstar contracts + rookie bonus period to build a flexible salary system.

Analyzing the prospects of these two teams carefully, the management is both a thousand-year-old fox and a thousand-year-old turtle, but in fact they are all carefully plotting in pieces. This article deeply analyzes the team building logic, salary risks and possible collapse points in the future of the Thunder and Rockets, and explores which model is more likely to succeed or fall into the abyss under the shackles of the new version of CBA.

1. Is the blueprint of the three maximum salary dynasty of Thunder or the salary tsunami?

In 2025, due to salary issues, it is common to dismantle the team. It is understandable that the Suns, who cannot even enter the playoffs, sent Durant to cut Bill. In order to save money, the Celtics sent out Possessed, the Bucks bought out Lillard just to make room for salary, and the Grizzlies sent Bain to leave Bain and even considered trading Morant. Even 20 million can't afford the Pacers, the hero of the Finals. These are all caused by money.

Correspondingly, the Lakers, Warriors, 76ers, and Timberwolves, who have been reluctant to make big moves in the salary framework, are all because the team has a super big contract, which has no room for operation.

The most important operation is that the Mavericks trade the team's cornerstone player Doncic without any confidentiality. Although the deal has conspiracy theories, NBA bosses are all timid about the super top salary.

In this case, the Thunder completed the upstream and threw out the maximum salary of three points. Alexander (4 years, 285 million super maximum salary), Jewish (5 years, 287 million), and Chett (5 years, 250 million) all locked to the 2030-31 season. This means that starting from 2027, the three will account for more than 85% of the team's salary space and completely overlap. The biggest problem with this structure is that the new version of the NBA CBA has imposed severe punishments on teams with the second rich line (expected to be 215 million in 2027), such as freezing the future first-round pick, canceling the middle-class special case, and limiting transaction flexibility. At that time, the Thunder will be forced to operate in the model of Big Three + Basic Salary + Rookie Bonus, and the depth of the lineup will inevitably be seriously affected.

Compared with young stars who stably locked the team, the Rockets' operations are another mode. They exchange for mature old superstars like Durant when a young player with outstanding potential is in hand. Only one maximum-paid player has no pressure on the Rockets. They even have the ability to compete for other mature super giants in 2027, and form 1/2 top superstars + a group of young talents. Compared with the Thunder, the Rockets have more flexible operating space and are more ductile.

So no one knows whether all of Thunder's operations are the blueprint of the dynasty or the tsunami disaster of salary. But it is obvious that Thunder has its own solution.

2. Thunder points and solutions for the third-year high salary in the Thunder

It is reported that Jewe's contract renewal contract should include the Ross clause (if selected as the best lineup or MVP, the starting salary can be increased from 25% to 30%). If he enters the best lineup again in 2026, his salary will soar from 49.5 million to 57 million. In addition to the existence of some other role players, the Thunder may directly break through the second rich line. Considering the competitive pressure of Thunder in the next few years, Jewei's growth and honor accumulation are almost inevitable events, and this clause may become the last straw that crushes salary flexibility.

In addition, Chett's injury history (reimbursed for the first season of his NBA, and only played 32 games in the regular season last season) also made this long-term investment full of uncertainty. If he cannot stay healthy, the Thunder will face the problem that the maximum salary players cannot provide maximum salary value. The team's ability model is greatly discounted. Because the salary structure is locked, they cannot strengthen through the free market.

Therefore, the Thunder's model is based on the assumption that all three young people are healthy and continuous progress. If any link has problems during this period (injuries, stagnation of growth, and salary explosion), it will cause the team to fall into a long-term salary hell.

In addition to this, it is also essential to build a championship team, in addition to the core three giants, excellent role players are also indispensable. In the 2025 championship season, Dort (36.5 million left), Caruso (about 80 million left in four years), and Hartten (57 million left in two years) all provided great help to the Thunder. If the Big Three completely locks down the cap space, these excellent role players will not be able to stay in the team after 2027.

The Thunder solves these thunder points in a simple and rough way. They have 10 first-round draft picks in the future (before 2030), and the third young men with Durant, Westbrook and Harden, and the new third young men with Yali, Jewish and Chett. The Thunder is very confident in their draft vision and rookie training system. Obviously, they have enough confidence to get enough dividends in the four-year contract of the rookie contract. If one player doesn't work, then replace the next player and continue to train..

With the three cores locking in the salary space, the Thunder's team building idea should be very obvious. Their future 10 draft picks will basically not tap potential rookies, but will mainly choose mature combat power and functional players (defensive engineers, inside blue-collar workers, three-point shooters, unball pitchers who take the ball, etc.) to fill the vacancy after Caruso, Dort and Hartten leave the team at that time.

From this point of view, it is fortunate that Yang Hansen was not selected by the Thunder. Otherwise, four years of training in the rookie contract may not be enough, which may lead to no chance to play as an NBA starter in his entire life.

As mentioned just now, if the new third young master encounters injuries, stagnation of growth, etc., then there is no need to panic. With as many as 10 first-round draft picks, even if it is a very bad salary burden, the Thunder can take advantage of about 3 first-round picks and then find a second replacement in their first-round rookie group.

As long as there are enough spare tires, there is always an excellent one that can be converted to a regular business.

3. The Rockets' short-term competition and long-term elasticity

The Thunder's new three-few binding model is aggressive, but it may also have high returns while being at a high risk. In contrast, the Rockets' Durant time difference strategy is another smart way of operation. The Houstonians try to find a balance between short-term competitiveness and long-term flexibility to maintain the team's competitiveness over the long term.

The Rockets' operational idea is a team personnel structure with single-core/double-core maximum salary + rookie bonus. In the operation in 2025, they only have one maximum salary contract for Durant, and the other cores (Amen Thompson, Shin Kyung, Jabbarri Smith Jr., Ethan) are still in the rookie contract or second maximum salary stage. In addition, potential players such as Shepard, No. 20 pick Whitmore, can't even play in the playoffs.

Judging from the current Rockets' lineup, the only players with maximum salary in the future are Amen Thompson. Although the other players are good, they do not look like top superstars. Therefore, even if the Rockets and Durant complete the contract renewal (it is reported that the two sides are discussing a two-year contract renewal), the team will easily digest the two maximum salary contracts, and they also have the ability to catch big fish in the super free agent market in 2027. If another super giant can be signed at that time, Durant's big contract expires in 2028, and the flexible salary replacement can be successfully completed.

At that time, the Rockets can directly use the space freed up by Durant to sign other superstars, or renew the contract with the elderly Durant at the next level. If Durant cannot catch a big fish and chooses to retire at that time, the Rockets can flexibly turn to the free market to find about 40 million All-Star players in the second-tier. Or, make new team positions and salary space to hand over the Rockets' next player with maximum salary like Amen.

You should know that although the Rockets' next nine first-round picks are not as exaggerated as the Thunder's 10, their draft picks are more valuable, including 3 Suns' unprotected picks. When the Suns are destined to be bad, there will be about 2-3 draft picks in the next few years (especially the Suns' first-round picks in 2027), so the value of these draft picks is probably higher than that of ordinary All-Star players.

Rockets' mode is not as crazy as the Thunder, but it is full of planning in every detail. Such operations allow them to win the championship in the Durant window period (2026-2028, if the contract is renewed successfully), while retaining the flexible operation space after 2028. Regardless of whether Amen grows into a maximum-paid player, they have a solution.

4. Who is more likely to collapse in the game under the new version of CBA?

Whether it is the Thunder's madness or the Rockets' calculations, they are actually playing under the framework of the labor-management agreement. It is still difficult for us to estimate the future second rich line, but considering that Xiao Hua is extremely good at maximizing the commercial interests of the NBA, in addition to broadcasting, even many industries in the gray area dare to sign cooperation, the second rich line will most likely continue to improve in the next few years.

For the Thunder, their biggest crisis is in 2027 (Alexander's super maximum salary contract will take effect in the 2027-28 season), when the three young masters' salary will be at least 160 million yuan. Even if the second rich line at that time could be increased to 210-220 million (estimated), the entire team would only have about 60 million US dollars of operational space.

At that time, even if other players are rookie contracts, the people of Sakura can smack the salary space. It is inevitable that Caruso, Harten and Dort will leave the team. The possibility of Thunder breaking out is very high, and the space they can operate in their hands is very limiting, resulting in extremely low fault tolerance.

Especially for the uncontrollable factors such as injuries, once any of Alexander, Jewish and Chet are injured, there is almost no place for the entire team to move. The Thunder bets that all the new third young men grew into MVP-level players without injury, and the expectation of the surge in the external salary cap, but the punishment mechanism of the new CBA, coupled with the influence of uninjured factors such as injuries, makes this operation extremely risky.

In comparison, the Rockets' operations are much smarter. If the contract renewal with Durant is successfully negotiated, the team's winning window will continue until 2028, and Amen can take over the batter by the maximum salary. During this period, the Rockets can even have a lot of salary space to sign superstars like Antetokounmpo, Embiid, and Jokic in 2026 and 2027, and continue their championship cycle.

Thunder hopes for an ideal future territory, while the Rockets place all operations on the value of options. Regardless of whether Amen meets the standards or not, they can remain competitive after 2028. The Rockets' model is more sustainable, and they have better opportunities to control variables and fault tolerance. If the Thunder's three maximum salary bet is successful, it will bind three MVP-level top superstars to build a dynasty. If it fails, it may become a negative teaching material for future NBA executives in salary operations.