2025 NBA Draft: The 18-year-old No. 1 pick may become the first "billionaire"

Duke, a freshman star, was awarded the No. 1 pick and earned nearly $14 million next season - not including endorsement revenue. For the 18-year-old, this may just be the beginning of his billion-dollar career.

Locking Flag: The Dallas Mavericks selected Duke's Cooper Flag with the 2025 NBA Draft No. 1 pick. Image

Original title: "2025 NBA Draft: Forecast of the contract amount between Cooper Flag and other first-round picks"

If people are somewhat concerned about whether Cooper Flag will become the No. 1 pick before the 2025 NBA Draft on Wednesday night, then this doubt disappeared a few minutes after the draft ceremony started. After NBA president Adam Silver announced that the 18-year-old star from Newport, Maine, was selected for the No. 1 pick by the Dallas Mavericks, Flagg walked onto the stage of the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, exuding a steady confidence all over his body, as if he was born to stand there. After all, from high school to college, his nearly unlimited talent has long fascinated the scouts.

As a freshman, Duke played for just one season, he won the Naismith Player of the Year Award, leading the Blue Devils to the Atlantic Coast League (ACC) championship and reach the semi-finals.

"To be honest, this is a dream come true. I want to share this moment with those who have special meaning to me," Flag said after being selected, with his parents and two brothers accompanying him. "I can't stand here without these people around me, without those who support me in my hometown of Maine. There is also my family and friends in the stands. They come for me, and without them, I wouldn't be who I am today. Seeing everyone supporting me means a lot to me."

Now, Flag is reaping rewards for his dazzling performance in the past.

As the No. 1 pick, his NBA salary may exceed $60 million in the first four years of his NBA career. If this player who is compared with "the No. 1 pick in the team" such as LeBron James and Victor Wembanyama can realize his talent, his rookie contract will be extremely cost-effective.

According to NBA rookie salary standards, Flag is expected to earn nearly $14 million in his first professional season, slightly lower than the average salary of $14.5 million for the 354 NBA players signed in the 2025-26 season (Contract Database Spotrac data). The salary of the No. 1 pick is $11.5 million, but the team can float or drop by 20%. At least the past two No. 1 picks have exceeded their rank value: Vinban Yama, who was selected by the San Antonio Spurs in 2023, and Zaccharie Risacher, who joined the Atlanta Hawks in 2024 - both have previously played in the French Professional League. The 21-year-old Wenban Yama rookie earns $12.2 million in season, including team options, with a total value of more than $55 million in four-year contracts; the 20-year-old Rissache is slightly higher than this figure, with a salary of $12.6 million in 2024-25, with a total price of $57 million in four-year contracts.

NBA rookie salary is not always so standard. The league first implemented a scheduled salary structure for rookies in 1995, after the first year when No. 1 pick Glenn Robinson signed a 10-year, $68 million contract with the Milwaukee Bucks after a great senior season at Purdue. The new rules seriously limit the agent's ability to negotiate salary for new league players. RealGM data shows that in the first draft after the new rules were implemented, the University of Maryland's Joe Smith was selected by the Golden State Warriors, with a first-year salary of only $2 million. (The NFL followed up with the rookie salary cap system in 2011. 2025 No. 1 pick Cam Ward signed a four-year, $48.8 million contract with the Tennessee Titans, down from the six-year, $78 million contract signed by Sam Bradford with the then St. Louis Rams 15 years ago.)

In the decades since Smith was elected No. 1 pick, NBA rookie salary has risen with the salary cap (linked to league income). It is reported that the NBA issued a notice to all teams in March this year, saying that the 2025-26 season salary cap is expected to rise 10% from $140.6 million in the past season to $154.6 million. Based on this forecast (usually finalized before the free agent market opens in July), Flag's on-court revenue in the first four seasons of the NBA is expected to be close to $63 million. According to the league's labor and capital agreement, the contract for the first two years of the first round pick is to guarantee the contract, and the team can choose whether to continue to execute the contract in the third and fourth years. Salary will also increase year by year during the contract period.

Flag is not the only rookie who has made a fortune. All first-round picks are expected to earn seven figures this year, although the amounts for each pick are decreasing in turn. If the second and Tanhua sign a maximum salary contract, the total salary in four years can reach US$56.1 million and US$50 million respectively; while the 30th overall pick's salary is expected to be US$14 million, with US$2.7 million in the first year.

The first NBA contract will bring tens of millions of dollars to the Mavericks new member, but it is just the tip of the iceberg of Flag's financial blueprint.

He has signed brands such as NewBalance, Fanatics and Gatorade to build a very important off-site cooperation lineup. As media copyright fees soared (the NBA signed a new broadcast contract of 11 years of $76 billion last year), its on-the-scene revenue potential is even more limitless. In the 2026-27 season, Warriors defender Stephen Curry will become the first player to earn more than $60 million an year, while Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum will break through the $70 million annual salary mark in the 2029-30 season.

According to Spotac statistics, James' on-court revenue will exceed $580 million this season, ranking first among NBA players. But it is worth noting that his annual salary only exceeded $50 million for the first time in his 23rd season in the NBA; by comparison, Tatum will reach this milestone in his ninth year of his career.

According to Spotrac estimates, Flag may receive a five-year, $359 million super maximum salary renewal contract in 2029, and may also sign a five-year, $509 million contract until he is 32 years old.

In the words of NewBalance marketing executive Naveen Lokesh: "If Cooper had played his due level, his on-field revenue could exceed one billion dollars."

This article is translated from:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/justinbirnbaum/2025/06/25/nba-draft-2025-projected-contracts-for-cooper-flagg-and-other-first-round-picks/

Text: JustinBirnbaum

Reprinted from: Forbes Chinese website