Saturday 007 US > Colorado vs Austin FC

⚽ 1. Official rosters of both sides and core players status

Colorado Rapids (Head Coach: Chris Almas)

Official roster (Updated on June 5):

Goalkeeper: Mark Ivanovic

Defender: Andrew Gutman, Laras Abubakar (Injury), Kay Rawls, Mikal Des

Midfielder: Cole Barsey Ter, Oliver Larson, Darren Yapi

Forwards: Rafael Navarro, Kimmy Stewart Baynes (injury), Kevin Cabral

Key Absentee:

Laras Abubakar (main center back, knee injury reimbursement season);

Kimmy Stewart Baynes (forward star, torn ankle ligament);

W. Frederick II (rotating forward, muscle strain).

Core player status (data source: MLS official website + Opta):

Raphael Navarro (forward): 10 goals and 2 assists in the season, but only 1 goal in the last 5 games, the shooting rate has dropped to 32% (7 shots and 0 positives against Vancouver).

Cole Bassett (midfielder): Offensive and defensive hub, averaging 3.8 steals + 1.9 key passes, but the success rate of the confrontation is only 45%.

Kay Rawls (center-back): The success rate of the aerial top is 89%, but the turn is slow (1.8 times per game), and set-piece defense is the key.

Austin FC (Head Coach: Wolf)

Official Roster (Updated on June 6):

Goalkeeper: Brad Steffer

Defender: Leo Vaisanen, Giulio Cascart, Ruben Gabriel

Midfielders: Daniel Pereira, Alexander Lin, Sebastian Deliusi (Injury)

Forwards: Diogo Montero, Jossi El Salvador, Rodrigo Silva

Key Absent:

Sebastian Deliusi (offensive core, knee injury, original contribution to the highest 11 goals in the team);

Ethan Finley (wind, quadriceps strain);

Gallagher (main central defender, cumulative yellow card suspension).

Core player status:

Diogo Montero (forward): Substituted Deliusei for 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games, but missed 4 excellent opportunities (8th inefficient in the league).

Daniel Pereira (middle midfielder): Average of 4.1 interceptions + long pass success rate of 83%, but forward passes account for only 35%.

Brad Steffer (goalkeeper): The save success rate is 74%, but the judgment error rate of high-altitude balls is 18% (the last round conceded a goal against Salt Lake City).

🧠 2. Comparison of tactical systems and recent performances

Colorado Rapids: 3-4-3 high-pressure press + edge-middle combination

Almas tactical core:

Offense: Relying on the wing Navarro and Cabral cut through crosses (average of 21.3 crosses per game), but the conversion rate is only 9% (the third from the bottom in the league).

Defense: High-pressures are averaging 12.1 balls, but the three-center-back system has decreased due to Abu Bakar's absence (the original success rate of top-strike is 89%).

Recent flaws:

Unstable lead: He scored three goals this season and lost points, conceded 8 points (he was reversed after leading Portland 2-1 in the last round).

Home offense and defense imbalance: Average of 1.5 goals and conceded 1.57 goals at home, with a zero-blocking rate of only 25%.

Austin FC: 5-4-1 Deep defense + fast counterattack

Wolf's tactical core:

Conservative style: average ball possession rate of 42%, the slowest pace of the game in the league (0.69 goals per game), with a total of 7 goals in the last 10 games ≤2 goals.

Counterattack dependency: Montero speed (33km/h) + Silva's straight pass (1.2 key passes per game), but Deliusi's absence caused a sharp decline in finishing ability.

Recent disadvantages:

Away bug attributes: 1 win, 4 draws and 5 losses in the last 10 away games, averaging 0.4 goals and conceded 1.8 goals per game (a 1-5 defeat to Salt Lake City in the last round).

Attack weakness: only scored 11 goals in 16 rounds, missing 29 excellent opportunities (8th inefficient in the league).

⚔️ 3. Key counter-attack and winner-losing analysis

Core players' focus of confrontation

Position Colorado advantage Austin opportunity Navarro competes for the top of the high altitude (68%) Montero counterattack speed vs Rawls turn and slow midfielder Bassett's forward insertion (3 goals in the season) Pereira's long pass dispatches to hit the defense line weakness Gutman assists behind the gap Silva is diagonally inserted into the ribs (1.5 times per game)

Tactical victory key

Setting ball offense and defense:

Colorado set pieces account for 30% (Rolls heads 3 times), Austin's high-altitude defense has hidden dangers due to Gallagher's absence.

Midfield control:

If Austin shrinks too deep (12.1 clearances per game), he may be threatened by Bassett's long-range shot (2.1 per game).

Psychological factors:

Austin lost 8 away games (the longest team history), Colorado won two consecutive home games and scored zero, and its morale was superior.

📊 4. Results prediction and subsequent impact

Data deduction (based on the historical model of the official website of MLS):

Colorado winning rate: 48% (home winning rate 60%, two consecutive victories in the past).

draw probability: 35% (3 draws in historical confrontations, accounting for 60%).

Austin win rate: 17% (away win rate 12.5%).

Playoff pattern:

Colorado wins: 25 points surpass Portland and rose to 7th in the Western Conference, with a stable place in the playoffs.

Austin wins: 26 points close to the top six, but the remaining schedule is second in the West (Liana Los Angeles/Seattle).

Coach Crisis: If Wolf continues to lose his away game (original 8 games without winnings), the coaching position will be shaken; Almas needs to prove the "sustainability of the high-pressure system."

Player career nodes:

If Montero continues to be sluggish, he may be replaced by new players; if Navarro breaks the waste, he will attract the attention of European scouts.

5. Conclusion: Colorado's small home victory

Key basis:

Austin Dellyosi was absent + away weakness caused the offense to be paralyzed (average 0.4 goals per game), Colorado won two consecutive home games at home and scored zero points + set pieces advantage.

The historical confrontation Colorado lost 2-3 at home (2022), but now Austin's offensive and defensive strength has declined significantly.

🔍 Final roster verification: Log in to the Colorado Rapids official website or the Austin FC official website 1 hour before the game to get updates.