Thursday 002 Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid (36th round of La Liga) in-depth analysis!

1. Fighting intention and situation

1. Osasuna:

-Midstream positioning: ranks 10th with 45 points, has no worries about relegation and has little hope for European competition, but there is still the qualification of the European Union (2 points away from 8th place), and has a strong fighting spirit at home.

-Home advantage: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in the last 5 home games, an unbeaten rate of 80%, and a solid defense (conceded 1.3 goals per game at home).

- Key Power: Fans support Budimir (19 goals) in the championship competition. Currently, Budimir scorer list is second only to Mbappe and Lewandowski, and it is only one goal away from the team's history.

2. Atletico Madrid:

- Champions League sprint: ranks third with 70 points, 8 points behind Real Madrid, and needs to consolidate the top three.

- Away weakness: only 1 win in the last 5 away games, averaging 0.8 goals, and a vacuum on the right defensive.

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2. Tactical Game

- Osasuna:

- 5-3-2 Defensive Counterattacks: Rely on the sweeping ability of wingbacks Braeton (34 interceptions) and Areso (70 steals) to limit Atletico's breakthrough on the wing.

- High-altitude bombing: Budimir (65% success rate for headers) is the core, paired with Zaragoza's cross from the wing (2.8 times per game), targeting Atletico Madrid's high-altitude defense weakness (Jimenez cleared 110 times).

- Settings Threat: Settings score accounts for 34%, and may create murderous intent through corner kicks or free kicks.

- Atletico Madrid:

- 4-4-2 counterattack system: Griezmann (45 key passes) and Alvarez (15 goals) lead the front line and use Osasuna's gap in the midfield to advance quickly.

- Defensive loophole: weak defense on the right (Lorente was overtaken by 42%), and may be targeted by Osasuna on the left.

- Settings defense: Settings lose 30% of points, so beware of Budimir's high-altitude top-square.

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3. Key data confronts history

- Recent status:

- Osasuna has won 3 games, 1 draw and 1 loss in the last 5 games, 2 consecutive home games and 2 clean sheets; Atletico Madrid has won 2 wins and 1 draw in the last 3 rounds, but the away offensive efficiency has declined (average of 0.8 goals per game in the last 5 games).

- Historical confrontation:

- Atletico Madrid has an absolute advantage in the last 10 matches, but Osasuna was upset 4-1 away last season, and Atletico Madrid won 1-0 in the first leg of this season.

- Institutional data:

- The initial index dropped from Atletico Madrid to 0.5 goals to 0.25 goals, the European home victory odds were lowered to the 3.25-3.90 range, the draw odds were 3.08-3.46, and the institutions tended to draw or win a small victory.

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4. Injuries and lineup impact

- Osasuna:

- Central defender David Garcia (suspended) has led to a restructuring of the defense and lack of substitute experience.

- Atletico Madrid:

- Right back Molina rests, Llorente plays a guest appearance on the right side with hidden dangers; Alvarez, the forward line, has released the ban and returned, but his condition fluctuates significantly (only 1 goal in the last 5 games).

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5. Win-loss and predictions

- The key to victory and loss:

- Osasuna: Can you use Budimir's high-altitude advantage and cross from the wing to suppress Atletico Madrid's defense line and break through the set piece.

- Atletico Madrid: We need to crack intensive defense, rely on Griezmann's oblique plug and Throot's finishing ability, but we need to be alert to Osasuna's counterattack (75% of the counterattack goals in the last 3 games).

- Score prediction:

- Conservative script: 1-1 (both sides missed the opportunity, Osasuna scored on a set piece, Atletico Madrid counterattacked to equalize).

-Unpopularity: 2-1 (Osasuna suppressed his momentum at home, Budimir won the header) or 0-1 (Atle Madrid steals points based on experience).

- Extreme situation: If Atletico Madrid cannot defeat for a long time, it may be upset 0-2 (the probability is less than 15%).

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Summary

This game is an offensive and defensive game of "the home court of the midfield vs the championship team of the giants". Osasuna is resilient at home and has strong tactics, while Atletico Madrid faces away weakness. In the initial stage, the visiting team was weak, but Atletico Madrid had the advantage in the historical confrontation. Overall, a 1-1 draw is the most likely result of fundamentals and data orientation.

Recommended home team to win

Age reference 00 11

Pictures are from the Internet