[Tactical Analysis] 3 strings: Paris is desperate, Porto needs to strive for victory (with sweeping)

Monday 001 Club World Cup Seattle Bayerman VS Paris Saint-Germain

Match time: 2025-06-24 03:00

Injury information:

Seattle

Kim Ki-hee defender

Main central defender, defensive core; calf injury (April 2025), expected return time is not determined

Gomez Andrad defender

Main defender, strong confrontation; muscle contusion (recent), it is doubtful to play in this game

Jordan Morris, forward

Fast horse, strong impact; injury has not been disclosed (recent), absent this game

Paul Arora Forward

Substitute surprise; torn cruciate ligament (early 2025), season reimbursement

Hawkins defender

rotation defender; specific injury has not been made public, confirmed absence

Rusnack midfielder

core organization; injured (April 7, 2025), return expectations

Paris

Bradley Barcola Forward

main winger, sharp breakthrough; knee injury (early June), missed the group stage

Ottoman Dembele Forward

core attacker, speed and technology; thigh strain (early June), reimbursement

Presner Kimpenbe The defender

main central defender, with steady defense; right foot bone edema (early May), season reimbursement, target Club World Cup late return

prediction starter and tactical analysis

Seattle (4-2-3-1 defensive counterattack)

goalkeepers: Stefan Frei

defender: Alex Roldan, Yeimar Gómez, Jackson Ragen, Nouhou Tolo

midfielder: João Paulo, Albert Rusnack Rusnák

Front court: Léo Julien, Cristian Roldan, Jordan Morris

Forward: Jesús Ferreira)

Paris Saint-Germain (4-3-3 ball control lead)

Donaruma; Ashraf (RB), Marginhos (CB), Pacho (CB), Nuno Mendes (LB); Vitinia (DM), Fabian Ruiz (CM), João Neves (CM); Kvaratshelia (LW), Gonzalo La Moss (CF) and Douai (RW)

The key and tactical game of victory and loss

Seattle

4-2-3-1 Anti-Reverse System: Double midfielders shrink their defense line, and average interceptions per game in the midfield (third from the bottom of the Club World Cup). Facing high-pressure volatility, offense relies on wings and set pieces: the full-back makes a forward pass (18.5 times per game), set pieces score 24% (71% success rate of central defender Lagen)

Weakness: Injuries lead to rotation of defense line, and the vacancy on the left is focused by Paris; the midfield ball possession rate is only 54.6%, which is easy to be suppressed

Paris

4-3-3 Passing and Control Oppression: Average ball possession rate of 68%, Vitinia + Fabian leads short pass penetration, winger cuts inward and fullback sets (Ashraf 18 assists in the season)

Offensive Trident linkage: Ramos' fulcrum, Kvarats Khlia cuts inside to create a threat, Douai has no ball interspersed

Defensive hidden dangers: high-level pressing is easily broken by counterattacks (the result of the loss of the ball against Botafogo), the central defender turns slowly (the success rate of high-altitude top is only 58%)

Winning and Loss Points:

Qualifying intention vs. Injury troubles: Paris needs to win to ensure promotion (B Group B Bottafogo 6 points, Paris/Atletico Madrid 3 points), while Seattle has been eliminated and lacks 5 main players, and its fighting spirit is sluggish

Wing offensive and defensive matchup: Paris on the right (Ashraf + Douai) attacks Seattle's substitute left-back, whose passing success rate is only 62%, which may be a breakthrough

Midfielder control: Vitinia (Paris) vs. Rordan (Seattle) - The former averages more than 100 touches per game, and the latter has an interception rate of 1.9 times. If Seattle loses the midfield, it will be completely passive. Offense and defense: Paris set-piece scores account for 22%, Seattle's defensive turnover rate is 23%, and its air defense ability is weak, which may be the main reason for the loss of the ball. The direction forecast is

First half: Paris leads the ball possession (the ball possession rate is expected to exceed 65%), Seattle shrinks its defense line and seeks counterattack. ;If Paris scored early (such as Mbappe's breakthrough on the side), the game will enter the crushing rhythm

The second half: Seattle's physical fitness declined and the defense line's loopholes were amplified. Paris strengthened the impact of the wing through substitutions (such as Barcola's substitute), which may expand the score

Score tendency: Paris 3-0 or 4-1 (strength crush + Seattle's defense line is incomplete, but it may steal 1 goal by relying on set balls)

Monday 002 Club World Cup Atletico Madrid VS Bottafogo

Match time: 2025-06-24 03:00

Injury information:

Atletico Madrid

No injury or suspension player

Bottafogo

No main player to be injured, and core players such as Almada on the front line can play

Forecast starter and tactical analysis

Atletico Madrid (4-4-2 high pressure pressing)

Goalkeeper: Jan Oblak

Defenders: Nahuel Molina, José Giménez, Mario Hermoso, Javi Galán

Midfielder: Rodrigo De Paul, Koke, Marcos Llorente, Saúl Ñíguez

Forwards: Julián Álvarez, Antoine Griezmann

Botafogo (4-2-3-1 defensive counterattack)

Victor (GK); Vitinho (RB), Cunia (CB), Barbosa (CB), Teres (LB); Freitas (DM), Grigley (DM); Savarino (RM), Artur (AM), Igor Jesus (LM); Mastriani (CF)

Key and tactical game of victory and loss

Atletico Madrid

Core tactics: Use a 4-4-2 formation to switch 5-3-2 defense, compress the wing space and force the opponent to attack the middle, and then use Griezmann Alvarez's quick cooperation to counterattack. The set-piece score rate reaches 28%, which is the key to breaking the situation. Weakness: the midfield creativity is insufficient. If Alvarez is locked, the offense is easy to become rigid; the away game is poor (the winning rate of La Liga is only 52%)

Botafogo

Core tactics: The 4-3-3 formation focuses on overall defense, the midfield trio covers a large area, and after intercepting the ball, Savarino or Jesus advances quickly. When playing against Paris, the ball possession rate is only 25%, but all four shots are creating threats. The counterattack efficiency is extremely high. Weaknesses: low offensive conversion rate (only 1.2 goals per game in Brazil A), obvious physical potential (the main players have cramped in recent games)

Winning points:

Quit the life and death battle:

Botafogo is unbeaten and locks in the group first; Atletico Madrid must win more than 2 goals to ensure promotion (current goal difference -2, 3 behind Paris). If the three teams score 6 points together, they need to compare the complex rules such as goal difference and goals scored.

Winning and losing hands:

Can Atletico Madrid break the iron barrel formation: Botafogo's defense line only conceded 1 goal in this game. Atletico Madrid needs to rely on the set piece (Vitsel/Langlei's top score) and Alvarez's personal ability to break the deadlock

Botafogo's counterattack quality: Jesus (1 goal and 1 assist in 2 games) and Savarino's side impact, which may target the gaps behind the Atletico Madrid fullback

Physical fitness allocation: Botafogo's continuous high-intensity battle. If Atletico Madrid fails to attack in the first half, the opponent's physical fitness may be reversed in the second half. The direction prediction:

Atletico Madrid is likely to dominate the offense (ball possession rate of 60%+), but Botafogo's defensive discipline may tie or lose a small loss. Score tendency: 2-1 (Atle Madrid wins) or 1-1. If Atletico Madrid cannot defeat for a long time, the possibility of Botafogo's counterattack and sneak attack still exists

Monday 003 Club World Cup Porto VS Cairo Nationals

Match time: 2025-06-24 09:00

Injury information:

Porto

Diogo Costa

Position: Goalkeeper

Injury: Right thigh adductor muscle strain (injured during training on June 13)

Expected return: at least miss the first game, recovery time is to be determined

The team role: absolute main goalkeeper, top save reaction, core defense leader with a net worth of 40 million euros

Cairo Nationals

Emum Ashur (midfielder)

Off and defense core, accurate long pass. He was injured in the 12th minute of the first match and was expected to miss 2-3 weeks

Abu Ali (forward)

No. 1 scorer (35 goals in the season). Pre-match training with mild sprain, and the game is doubtful

Prespect for starters and tactical analysis

Porto (3-4-3 leads)

Goalkeeper: Messedo (substitute, missing with a muscle injury)

Defender: João Marcelo, Pepe, Otávio

Midfielders: João Mário, Alan Varela, Rodrigo Mora, Wendell

Forwards: Pepe Díaz, Samu Omorodion, Galeno

Cairo Nationals (5-3-2 defensive counterattack)

Goalkeeper: Isa

Defender: Alhammadi (right), Eric (center-back), Park Rongyu (center-back), Al Hashmi (center-back), Al Baroshi (left)

Midfielders: Kayo Candelo (middle midfielder), Bandar Saba H (back midfielder), Raba (front midfielder)

Forwards: Rahimi (left), Suhele (right)

win-loss and losses key and tactical game

Porto

Offensive: Relying on wingers Galeno and Evannielsson to break through and cross, Omorodion grabbed the point (accounting for nearly 40% of the team's goals); midfielder Gonzalez passed the long pass, and made a direct pass from the rib to create murderous intent.

Defense: Pressing at a high position in the frontcourt, quickly counterattacked after conceding the ball; but the away defense is poor, the loss rate is 75% when falling behind in the last 10 away games

Cairo Nationals

Defense: Three central defenders + double-wing guards build a dense defense line, and averaging goals in the last 10 games

Offense: Give up ball possession (the first round possession rate is only 38%), and long passes to find forward Kahraba; use the high center forward to head the ball (Sheri 1.90m), accounting for more than 30% of the goal ratio

Winning and Loss Points:

Porto's defense breaking ability: If you cannot score an early goal, you may fall into a deadlock in position; when Omorodion is focused on being guarded, you need to intervene in the midfield and support

Cairo National Counterattack Efficiency: Kahraba's speed tests Porto's full-back ability to chase back; if the counterattack is contained, the offensive threat will drop sharply (the midfield injury causes insufficient creativity).

Physical fitness and climate factors:

Hot weather may weaken Porto's high-pressure tactics. When the pressing intensity in the second half declined, the threat of Cairo's national counterattack increased

Psychology and fighting spirit:

Both teams drew in the first round and lost the second round (Porto 1-2 Miami, Cairo 0-2 Palmeiras). This game is a life-and-death battle for qualifying. Porto's net worth is crushed (5 times the opponent) and has rich experience, but Cairo Nationals' 12-time African championship background supports resilience

Score direction:

High probability scenario: Porto's ball control leads (60%+), Cairo Nationals defends the dead in the half. If Porto scored in the first half (with 9 of the last 10 games, he may lock in the victory 2-0; if he can't catch up for a long time, Cairo National Settings sneak attacks or draws (1-1).

Recommended score: Porto 2-0 (60% probability) or 1-1 (30% probability), total goals ≤3 goals

Note: The article is only the initial view, the time is earlier, due to the changes in data, it may affect the results, please refer carefully, it is more stable on the spot, and there will be a left small corner center of gravity analysis. It is more stable on the spot